Thomas Monk

Bio

Research

Abstract: Technological change events fundamentally change the type of tasks performed by human labour within occupations. I develop a predictive model, utilising machine learning techniques, and find that occupational skill intensity data can predict, to a high degree of accuracy, technological change event exposure, as measured by indices developed by Webb (2020). I link these predictions to skills data from a library of newspaper job vacancy adverts to understand how skill intensities have changed over time, and use this this to predict historical occupational technological exposure. Change in occupational technological exposure, as predicted by changing skill intensities, is highly associated with important labour market outcomes.

Abstract: Precautionary saving is a key driver of wealth inequality within models of the Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari canon. However, models with savings rates calibrated solely to idiosyncratic income risk find it difficult to replicate the vast wealth inequality empirically observed in the United States. This paper looks at a potential source of increased precautionary savings - idiosyncratic medical expenses shocks. This paper: i. establishes an identification procedure for medical expenditure shocks across the entire life cycle, ii. finds that idiosyncratic shocks are very highly persistent, iii. establishes the extent to which these shocks contribute to wealth inequality through the effect on savings behaviour.